Many people believe that David Fincher's win at the BAFTA Awards meant that the momentum had swung his way. I don't believe that at all. There was no momentum swing. Rather, it's a very close race that was a coin-toss and still is. But I think that Tom Hooper's accomplishment is greater and the Academy will recognize that. It's hypocritical for critics to complain that the Academy doesn't always reward the best, yet they feel that Fincher is "owed" an Oscar for something even he doesn't consider to be his greatest work.
I see Inception taking three technical categories, and The Social Network taking Adapted Screenplay and Editing.
True Grit may get shut out entirely, but it should capture at least Cinematography and maybe Best Supporting Actress.
Natalie Portman will win Best Supporting Actress for Black Swan, but that will be all that film gets.
Toy Story 3 will no doubt take the Animation prize, but should also capture Best Song in a weak field. I'm cheering on the hometown favourite Incendies for Foreign Language Film. It was my top film of 2010.
I think Inside Job will win for Documentary. It and not The Social Network is the film that is the most relevant and that captures the zeitgeist of our times. Waste Land is also a strong possibility. But if Exit Through the Gift Shop wins, it will have successfully made fools of both the art world and the cinema world in one fell swoop.
We'll know soon enough.
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My 2011 Oscar predictions
BEST PICTURE
The King's Speech
I'd also be fine with Black Swan, Inception or 127 Hours winning.
BEST DIRECTOR
Tom Hooper
Or Darren Aronofsky, but this is a strong category. Really though, it's a toss-up between Hooper and Fincher.
BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth
Another strong category, but this one is a slam-dunk for Firth.
BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman
Another really strong category. This one is Portman's to lose, but Annette Bening may come close.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale
All the acting categories are solid this year, and the Supporting Actor categories are often unpredictable. Christian Bale is the front-runner, but any would be worthy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter
This is Melissa Leo's to lose, but it'll be close with Hailee Steinfeld and Helena Bonham Carter poised to pull off an upset. I'll go out on a limb and say Carter.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Inside Job
Possibly Waste Land will take this. If Exit Through the Gift Shop wins, it will have successfully made fools of both the art world and the cinema world in one fell swoop.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 3
It's a Best Picture nominee, so it's a lock. It's my least favourite of the nominees, though. I prefer The Illusionist first, then How to Train Your Dragon second.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The King's Speech
Inception has an outside chance, but unlikely. The King's Speech made a rousing story out of seemingly uninteresting material: a royal with a stutter.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Social Network
I personally was unimpressed with the relentless verbiage of this script. But this not enough people looked closely enough, so this one is a lock.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Incendies
This is really a close three-way race between Incendies, Biutiful and In a Better World. This is always one of the toughest and most unpredictable categories.
BEST ART DIRECTION
The King's Speech
Inception or Alice and Wonderland might pull this one off, but I personally found the latter film rather ugly and uninspired.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
True Grit
The King's Speech and Inception have a chance here too.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The King's Speech
I Am Love and True Grit are also worthy, but this won't be close.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Social Network
As I've already said, The Social Network's editing is very TV and uninspired. But it won at the ACE Eddie Awards and is therefore the front-runner here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The King's Speech
Alexandre Desplat would be a worthy winner. I love Nine Inch Nails, but I'm not at all impressed with Ross and Reznor's film score for The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'We Belong Together' - Toy Story 3
A weak field that really could go to anyone.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Inception
It could go to The King's Speech, however, for its more subtle sound mix.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Inception
BEST MAKEUP
The Wolfman
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Strangers No More
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
God of Love
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